Looking into the eye of the next big storm?

Capitola winter storm waves, 1-13-2019;

Engaging others, whether it be students in their classrooms or the public, in scientific dialogue over global-scale natural science topics is one of the great unspoken duties, in my mind, of scientists and educators. And nowhere is that at once easier and more difficult than with climate, and specifically with ocean-atmosphere interactions that manifest in the regular cycles we call “El Nino and La Nina”. These cycles are regulated by changes in, and interactions between, sea surface temperature, rainfall, air pressure and temperature, and ocean and atmospheric circulation. Of course, in conversations with both students in the classroom and friends and family, these processes can be broken down further into basic ideas of volume, mass, density, temperature, pressure, and so on.

The idea of climate and oceanic oscillations doubtless began prior to the 1800’s, but the idea of El Nino/La Nina cycles, at least in the Pacific, started when fishermen on the coast South America, in Peru, noticed warm ocean currents appearing around Christmas time every few years. Referring to the birth of Christ, they nicknamed the events “El Nino”, which is of course “the boy” in Spanish. Fishing here is best in La Nina years, when cold upwelling ocean water drives rich nutrients to the surface from the deep.

An El Niño occurs when surface water in the equatorial Pacific becomes warmer than average and east winds blow weaker than normal. The opposite condition is called La Niña: water that is cooler than normal and the east winds are stronger. El Niños typically occur every 3 to 5 years. NOAA “El Nino and La Nina”

We are currently in an uncommon “Triple La Nina”. Here’s an out take from the journal “Nature”: “The current [2022] La Niña started around September 2020 and has been mild-to-moderate most of the time since then. As of April 2022, it intensified, leading to a cold snap over the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean not seen at that time of year since 1950. “That’s pretty impressive,”…

The latest forecast from the World Meteorological Organization, issued on 10 June, gives a 50–60% chance of La Niña persisting until July or September… NOAA’s Climate Prediction Centre has forecast a 51% chance of La Niña in early 2023.

…this prolonged La Niña, unlike previous triple dips, hasn’t come after a strong El Niño, which tends to build up a lot of ocean heat that takes a year or two to dissipate1. “I keep wondering, where’s the dynamics for this?” …” Nature News, 23 June, 2022

One of the advantages of living so close to the ocean is to be intricately connected to these cycles, and being engaged in one spot, one relatively small chunk of land, for many decades is that one can experience these cycles and feel their presence and effect on the land, the ocean, the weather, the climate, and the community. We are indeed very fortunate to live where we do!

The two tables and data are courtesy of https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

2014: Weak El Nino

2015: Very Strong El Nino

2016: Weak La Nina

2017: Weak La Nina

2018: Weak El Nino

2019: Weak El Nino to Enso Neutral (in Between El/La)

2020: Moderate La Nina

2021: Moderate La Nina

2022:

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